Wildfire Forecast Signals a Summer of Closures and Smoke for Western Backcountry Travelers

Anyone planning summer trips on Western public lands should expect more wildfires this season than in recent years. The National Interagency Fire Center's May 1 fire-potential outlook projects above-normal fire potential across most of the West through August, with the August forecast covering all of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Wyoming. The practical translation for travelers on Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, or National Park land: more closures, more smoke, and more last-minute trip changes than the past several summers.

The season is already underway. Cal Fire crews suppressed the wind-driven Springs Fire in Riverside County in early April and the Tower Fire near Bakersfield two weeks later, with national fire activity running at almost twice the 10-year average for this point in the year. Federal forecasters expect the above-normal zone to expand westward and northward as summer progresses.

A worse-than-usual start

The May 1 NIFC outlook recorded 24,066 wildfires through April, about 150% of the historical average for that point in the year. By May 9, the national fire statistics page showed those totals had grown to 25,560 fires and roughly 1.88 million acres burned, with 16 large fires actively being suppressed and 1,888 personnel deployed. The interagency National Preparedness Level, the staffing scale that runs 1 to 5, was set at 2 in late March and held there through April.

Nearly 62% of the contiguous United States was in drought as of April 28, the NIFC outlook reports, citing the U.S. Drought Monitor. The most severe category, "extreme drought," now covers more than 19% of the country, with the largest areas running through the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and from Utah into the central Rockies and Nebraska.

In California, with peak fire season approaching, state agencies have moved into pre-season posture. "Our extreme weather patterns continue to make wildfire a serious threat in California," Cal Fire Director Joe Tyler said at a state pre-season briefing reported by ABC7 News on May 8. The state has $70 million in grants available for community wildfire prevention and resilience projects, distributed to local Fire Safe Councils, fire departments, and nonprofit groups, according to State Fire Marshal Daniel Berlant. Cal Fire's 2026 air-tanker fleet includes C-130 platforms capable of carrying 4,000 gallons of fire retardant.

Already in 2026, the Highway 82 and Pineland Road fires in South Georgia produced what the NIFC outlook describes as "extreme fire behavior resulting in the loss of dozens of homes" between April 15 and April 20. Those fires alongside the early-spring California incidents have set the tone for what NIFC is now forecasting through August.

The forecast through August

The outlook lays out a month-by-month forecast for the country, and the pattern is consistent: above-normal fire potential expands westward and northward as summer progresses.

In May, that elevated risk sits in the Southeast (coastal areas, southern Alabama, and Florida), the Southwest into far southwest Utah, and a pocket of northwest Minnesota.

June is when the West starts to take over. Above-normal potential expands across the Four Corners region and southern Nevada, develops in northern California and the Inland Northwest, and adds east Texas and most of Louisiana.

July brings the biggest jump. The above-normal zone grows from Utah and western Colorado across the northern Great Basin and into most of northern California and the Pacific Northwest, while still running hot along the Gulf Coast and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

August is the broadest of the four months. NIFC forecasts above-normal fire potential across all of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Wyoming, with continued elevated risk through northern California, northern Nevada, northern Utah, and northwest Colorado.

Two notes for travelers planning around the season. Alaska is forecast to remain at normal fire potential through the entire period. The Northern Rockies are forecast as normal in May and June, shifting to above-normal in the Idaho Panhandle in July and expanding to include the Nez Perce-Bitterroot National Forests in August.

These are forecasts, not guarantees. The outlook combines drought trends, how dry the brush actually is, and patterns from past years that resembled this one. Conditions on a given mountain or in a given canyon can run very different from the regional outlook.

What's driving it

Three things are setting up the 2026 fire season: a winter that didn't deliver snow, a drought that keeps growing, and a Pacific climate pattern about to flip.

Many river basins from Oregon and California through the Great Basin and Southwest held less than 20% of typical snowpack on April 1, the date when snow usually peaks before melting off. The central and southern Sierra were at the second-lowest April 1 level on record going back to 1980, sitting at 25-30% of average through late April. The Cascades and the Northern Rockies fared better, with 40-80% of typical snowpack, but most of what's left is up high, above 6,000 to 8,000 feet. Lower-elevation forests, where most fires actually start, are already drying out.

According to the NIFC outlook, drought "developed and/or intensified in much of the West, and from the Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast and Mid-Atlantic," with improvement "limited to much of central Texas, eastern Oklahoma, much of the Great Lakes, and portions of northern New England."

Last winter's weak La Niña has faded, and forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center give a 62% chance of El Niño developing this summer, climbing to about 90% by late summer. For the West, that doesn't translate cleanly to more or less fire. The effect varies by region, and in the Northwest, NIFC notes, El Niño's summer impact is weak. The bigger story for that region is the warm, dry pattern expected to hold through August.

Northern California recorded nearly 10,300 lightning strikes in April, the NIFC outlook reports, against a 25-year April average of about 1,500. The previous April record, set in 2016, was around 8,600.

What it means for backcountry travelers

For people whose summer plans involve Forest Service, BLM, or National Park lands, the practical effects of an above-normal fire season run along four lines.

Closures will arrive earlier and last longer. Fire restrictions, forest closures, and road closures typically begin as fuel moisture drops below regional thresholds and tighten through summer. With above-normal potential forecast across most of the West by July, travelers should expect more areas under Stage 1 or Stage 2 restrictions, more dispersed-camping closures, and the possibility of full forest closures during peak heat or red-flag conditions.

Smoke will degrade air quality unevenly across regions. Even areas not directly affected by fire often see significant air quality degradation when prevailing winds carry smoke from active incidents. The EPA's AirNow service, which integrates real-time monitoring data with smoke forecasts, is the most current public source for AQI conditions and active smoke plumes.

The risk of being caught in or near an active fire is higher in remote terrain. Backcountry routes that lack reliable cell service complicate evacuations, especially when fire behavior shifts faster than dispatch can update road closures. Travelers should plan multiple egress options, not rely on a single route, and check for active fire activity along the planned route on the day of departure.

Plans may need to change quickly. Beyond the standard wildfire safety practices, the most useful preparation is to identify alternative destinations and rough mileage to each. Drought conditions and fire restrictions vary by ranger district and BLM field office, so a plan that includes contingency areas in different fire-management jurisdictions provides flexibility when one area closes.

How to track conditions before and during a trip

A few primary government and interagency sources update frequently and should be checked both before departure and during longer trips when cell service allows:

InciWeb (inciweb.nwcg.gov) is the federal interagency clearinghouse for active large-fire incidents, with maps, perimeters, evacuation orders, and closure information.
AirNow (airnow.gov) provides real-time AQI and smoke forecasts from EPA monitors.
NIFC Statistics (nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics) shows current national fire activity and resource status, updated daily during fire season.
U.S. Drought Monitor (droughtmonitor.unl.edu) is the standard weekly assessment of drought conditions by county.
USDA Forest Service Fire (fs.usda.gov/managing-land/fire) links to forest-level closures, fire orders, and regional information for travelers on national forests.
Bureau of Land Management Fire and Aviation (blm.gov) lists BLM closures and field-office restrictions.
National Park Service Fire (nps.gov/orgs/1965) is the equivalent reference for national parks.
NWS Fire Weather (spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx) issues Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches that signal the highest-risk days.

For California, ZIP-code-level fire restrictions are aggregated at readyforwildfire.org. State agencies in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Idaho, and Washington maintain their own fire pages, and most western state Departments of Forestry post evacuation orders in real time.

Local journalism remains a useful layer on top of agency feeds. Regional papers and broadcast newsrooms cover specific fires with on-scene reporting that often surfaces detail before federal pages update.

Frequently asked questions

Where is wildfire risk highest in summer 2026?

NIFC's May 1 outlook forecasts above-normal significant fire potential across most of the Western U.S. by July and August, with the largest projected area encompassing all of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Wyoming, plus most of northern California, northern Nevada, northern Utah, and northwest Colorado.

When do summer fire restrictions typically begin in the West?

Fire restrictions typically begin in late spring or early summer as fuel moisture drops below regional thresholds, then tighten through July and August. Specific timing varies by ranger district and field office. Check the relevant Forest Service, BLM, or state agency page for the area being visited.

How does the 2026 wildfire season compare to recent years so far?

By May 1, 1,848,210 acres had burned across the country, 194% of the previous 10-year average for that date, and the wildfire count was about 150% of average, NIFC reports. Drought covered nearly 62% of the country as of April 28, and the central and southern Sierra snowpack was at the second-lowest level since 1980.

What is the National Preparedness Level?

NIFC's National Preparedness Level is an interagency staffing and resource-allocation scale that runs 1 through 5, with higher numbers indicating greater fire activity and resource competition. The level was at 2 as of late March 2026 and remained there through April.

How can I check fire conditions before a backcountry trip?

Check InciWeb for active incidents on or near the planned route, AirNow for air-quality and smoke forecasts, the relevant USFS, BLM, or NPS unit pages for closures and restrictions, and NWS fire weather products for Red Flag Warnings on the planned travel days. Local newsrooms in the area being visited often have the freshest detail on a specific incident.

How we reported this

This article draws on the following primary sources, accessed May 8 and 9, 2026:

National Interagency Fire Center, "National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook" (May 1, 2026): the interagency seasonal forecast covering May through August. Primary source for regional fire-potential projections, drought and snowpack data, ENSO context, and the lightning-strike record. PDF
NIFC, "Statistics" (page accessed May 9, 2026): year-to-date fire counts and acreage. Page
NIFC, "National Fire News" (May 1, 2026): list of active large fires and the National Preparedness Level. Page
U.S. Drought Monitor (April 28, 2026 release): weekly drought assessment cited in the NIFC outlook. Page
NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO and seasonal climate outlooks referenced through the NIFC outlook.
ABC7 News, "Cal Fire prepares for potentially active 2026 California wildfire season" (May 8, 2026): on-record statements from Cal Fire Director Joe Tyler and State Fire Marshal Daniel Berlant attributed to a state pre-season briefing. Article

Hero image: USDA Forest Service photo by Jace James, Trap Fire, Sawtooth National Forest, used under federal-work public-domain status.